The Leading Economic Indicators and Business Cycles in the United States / Progress in Mathematics (PDF)

"This book blends two important topics: 1) An interesting history of research on economic growth and business cycles from the 1900's to today, and 2) A review and application of many of the newest econometric techniques to forecasting economic growth and stock prices. The integration of these two topics produce a volume that should be interesting and useful for both academics and practitioners in the fields of economics and finance."

-Martin J. Gruber, Professor Emeritus and Scholar in Residence, NYU

"John Guerard should be congratulated for writing an authoritative book on business cycles and the use of cyclical indicators in their historical perspectives. It covers the contributions of giants of the field including those by Wesley Mitchell, Arthur Burns, Geoffrey Moore, and Victor Zarnowitz, highlighting the statistical aspects of the issues involved. The book will specifically be useful for economic analysts and practitioners who are in the business of tracking the economy in real time."

-Kajal Lahiri, Distinguished Professor of Economics and Health Policy, Mgt., & Behavior, University at Albany: SUNY

In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy. This monograph explores time series forecasting and economic cycles using the Leading Economic Indicators, LEI, which are maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given the highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, the LEI series is particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles.

John B. Guerard, Jr., is a member of the McKinley Capital Management Scientific Advisory Board, where he previously served as Director of Quantitative Research in Anchorage, Alaska. John is affiliated with the Computational Finance and Risk Management Program, The University of Washington, Seattle, WA. He earned his AB in Economics from Duke University and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Texas, Austin. John serves an Associate Editor of the Journal of Investing and The International Journal of Forecasting and has published in these journals as well as Management Science, and Annals of Operations Research.