Stephen Roach on the Next Asia

Acknowledgments. Introduction. CHAPTER 1 A WORLD IN CRISIS. A Subprime Outlook for the Global Economy. Save the Day. Coping with a Different Recession. Davos Diary: 2008. Double Bubble Trouble. Even When the Worst Is Over--Watch Out for Aftershocks. Pitfalls in a Postbubble World. Panic of 2008: Enough Scapegoating. Global Fix for a Global Crisis. Changing the Fed's Policy Mandate. An Early Leadership Opportunity for Barack Obama. Dying of Consumption. Uncomfortable Truths about Our World after the Bubble. A Postbubble Global Business Cycle. America's Japan Syndrome. Whither Capitalism? After the Era of Excess. Same Old, Same Old. Depression Foil. CHAPTER 2 THE GLOBALIZATION DEBATE. Open Macro. The Battleground of Globalization. The Global Delta. Beggars Can't Be Choosers. Perils of a Different Globalization. Bad Advice and a New Global Architecture. Doha Doesn't Matter. Global Speed Trap. Hitting a BRIC Wall? Global Comeback--First Japan, Now Germany. Labor versus Capital. Global Lessons. From Globalization to Localization. Unprepared for Globalization. The Currency Foil. The Shifting Mix of Global Saving. CHAPTER 3 CHINESE REBALANCING. China's Rebalancing Challenge. A Commodity-Lite China. Scale and the Chinese Policy Challenge. China's Great Contradiction. Soft Landing Made in China? The Great Chinese Profits Debate. China Goes for Quality. Heavy Lifting. Two Birds with One Stone. Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, and Unsustainable. China's Global Challenge. Consumer-Led Growth for China. China's Macro Imperatives. Manchurian Paradox. CHAPTER 4 PAN-ASIAN CHALLENGES. The Next Asia. Rebalancing Made in Japan? From Beijing to Dubai. A Tale of Two Asias. Kim's Boost to Globalization. Japan's Missing Link. India on the Move. The Cranes of Dubai. Asian Decoupling Unlikely. The Korea Test. Asia's Policy Trap. Complacency Asian Style. The End of the Beginning. Another Asian Wake-Up Call. India's Virtuous Cycle. Risks of an Asian Relapse. CHAPTER 5 U.S.-CHINA TENSIONS.

STEPHEN S. ROACH has been a thought leader on Wall Street for over thirty years. He is currently a member of the faculty of Yale University and Non-Executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. For the bulk of his career, he served as Morgan Stanley's chief economist, heading up a highly regarded team of economists around the world. His recent research on globalization, the emergence of China and India, trade policy, and the capital market implications of global imbalances has appeared widely in the international media and in testimony before the U.S. Congress. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, he worked in senior capacities at Morgan Guaranty Trust Company and the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C. He holds a PhD in economics from New York University and was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is currently recovering from chronic jet lag syndrome after having logged 1.2 million air miles during his recent three-year stint as Hong Kong-based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.