Cancelled transition - The dilemma of civil society in Belarus

Scientific Essay from the year 2008 in the subject Politics - International Politics - Region: Russia, , course: Conference "Belarus in Europe: Economic Cooperation and Political Dialogue", language: English, abstract: The fact that demonstrations and street rallies in Belarus are only modestly attendedwitness that the extent of European and American criticism seems to be more virulent thanthe domestic resistance against the state authorities. As a matter of fact, in the 14th yearof Lukashenko's presidency we have to ask ourselves why the level of civil disobediencestill remains very low. One assessment in this regard is beyond question: The argument ofthe "people's fear of the authorities" doesn't serve any longer as the sole means ofexplanation. The reasons for the longevity of this authoritarian regime in the heart ofEurope are cross-linked: On the one hand, the historical weakness and the reluctance ofthe domestic political elite to accept independence in 1991 are very often brought into thediscussion. Apart from this, also Russian economic support made it possible for Belarus tonavigate itself into a deadlock in its relations with the EU. There may be other reasonswhich can explain the contemporary situation of a political cul-de-sac. However, the EUdecision makers would be well advised to deal with two subjects: First of all, they shouldseriously consider how much influence they really have over this awkward country andsecondly, they should - based on the first consideration - come to reasonable decisions.The imposition of visa bans altogether with the conditional approach of EU rapprochementwill not enhance the chances of democratization for Belarus. This "strategy" will have theopposite of the intended effect and provides the authorities with new tools to accuse theopposition of anti-Belarusian behavior.