Info-Gap Economics (PDF)

YAKOV BEN-HAIM holds the Yitzhak Moda'i Chair in Technology and Economics at the Technion - Israel Institute of Technology. He initiated and developed info-gap decision theory for modelling and managing severe uncertainty. Info-gap theory is applied in engineering, biological conservation, economics, project management, homeland security, medicine and other areas. He is the author of five books and numerous articles.

'Reading Info-Gap Economics was no less than inspiring, and taught me a great deal about modelling uncertainty. The advantages of the economical Info-gap models lie in their ability to maximize the immunity of model-based economic decisions to adverse uncertainty. The models are intuitive, start from the available knowledge and make few (if any) assumptions about true uncertainty, which may be difficult or even impossible to predict... I would strongly recommend Info-Gap Economics to ecological economists in need of some inspiration for modelling uncertainty, but particularly to decision makers dealing with decisions that have long-term consequences.' - Prof. Thomas Knoke, Institute of Forest Management, Technical University of Munich, Germany. Ecological Economics, 2010, Volume 70, Issue 3, pp.567-568."

'Ben-Haim's 'theories and presentation of how to calculate what one NEEDS to know are, or should be, MUST reading for any one seriously involved in any aspect of today's economic world, from the trader on a desk to a Central Bank head. It is much too easy, given the stresses of todays world, to skip past missing information so as to act quickly in the market, but that is exactly the path which leads to significant errors, as we have all unfortunately witnessed. A method of calculating the 'info gap' is certainly vital in setting policy.' - Lew Weston, Retired Partner, Goldman, Sachs& Co

'In an economic world where complexity defines the system and the underlying models are at best simplistic and incomplete, it is imperative that policy decisions be taken on the assumption of (disappointingly) incomplete knowledge. This is the time for info-gap and decisions under fundamental uncertainty.' - Dr. Maria Demertzis, Research Department, De Nederlandsche Bank, The Netherlands

'Much of the recent economic crisis can be traced to over reliance on simple mathematical models that take no account of the fact that real economies are subject to