Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Interest Rate Instability and Manufacturing Sector Output in Nigeria (1986 - 2017) (PDF)

Doktorarbeit / Dissertation aus dem Jahr 2019 im Fachbereich VWL - Aussenhandelstheorie, Aussenhandelspolitik, Obafemi Awolowo University, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: The study appraises different interest rate policies, exchange rate regimes and manufacturing sector in Nigeria from 1986 to 2017 and determines the effect of interest rate and exchange rate interaction on manufacturing sector output. It investigates the dynamic effects of exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate instability on manufacturing sector output, examines the response of manufacturing sector output to shocks from exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate instability. It also determines the threshold levels of exchange rate and interest rate that will spur manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. These are with a view to examining the relationship among exchange rate fluctuations, interest rate instability and manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.

The study uses secondary data. Annual data from 1986 to 2017 on manufacturing sector output, exchange rate, interest rates, gross fixed capital formation, credit to manufacturing sector, real GDP per capita, agricultural sector output, construction sector output, trade sector output, service sector output, tax revenue, inflation rate and trade openness are obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin of various years and World Development Indicators of various years, published by World Bank. The data collected is analysed using tables, graphs, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square estimator, Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, Vector Autoregressive model and Sarel Threshold model to achieve the stated objectives.

The study concludes that exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate instabilty dampened manufacturing sector output in Nigeria.