The Secular Decline of the South African Manufacturing Sector

1. Introduction.- 2. Does trade-openness affect the role of the domestic output-gap on inflation? If so, what is the role of the global out-put gap?.- 3. Does an increase in trade-openness and import-penetration affect income inequality? Evidence from the manufacturing sector output growth and employment growth.- 4. What is the impact of Chinese import penetration on the South African manufacturing sector?.- 5. What is the impact of global trade uncertainty and the exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector?.- 6. How does activity in manufacturing sector respond to trade and exchange rate shocks? Evidence from trade-openness and import penetration thresholds.- 7. What is the impact of imports by stage of production on the manufacturing sector output and employment growth?.- 8. What is the impact of imports by stage of production and the manufacturing sector investment growth?.- 9. What is the impact of global trade uncertainty and the exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector?.- 10. What is the impact of commodity price booms and capital flows surges episodes on the manufacturing sector?.- 11. What are the effects of capital flow shocks on the domestic manufacturing sector?.- 12. Does the persistent widening in the trade deficit explain the decline in the manufacturing sector output and employment growth?.- 13. Do credit booms, financial and credit cycles affect activity in the manufacturing sector?.- 14. What is the role of business and consumer confidence in amplifying the transmission of positive shocks into the manufacturing sector?.- 15. Do positive investment shocks in the manufacturing sector result in increased labour absorption and participation rates?.- 16. Did the decline in the excess capital adequacy ratio amplify the monetary policy easing and credit cycles on activity in the manufacturing sector?.- 17. Did the increase in excess liquid assets of banks amplify the effects of tight macro-prudential tools on activity in the

Nombulelo Gumata is an economist who has co-authored several books in the areas of international finance and macroeconomics, macro-prudential and regulatory tools and financial stability, labour markets, monetary and fiscal policy.