How Civil Wars Start

Chapter 1

The Danger of Anocracy

Noor was a high school sophomore in Baghdad when U.S. forces first attacked Iraq on March 19, 2003. At age thirteen, she had seen her country s leader, Saddam Hussein, condemn U.S. president George W. Bush on TV for threatening war and had heard her family talking around the dinner table about a possible American invasion. Noor was a typical teenager. She loved Britney Spears and the Backstreet Boys and Christina Aguilera. She would watch Oprah and Dr. Phil in her free time, and one of her favorite films was The Matrix. She couldn t imagine U.S. soldiers in Baghdad where life, though sometimes hard, had mainly been about hanging out with friends, walking to the park, and visiting her favorite animals at the zoo. To her, it just felt unreal.

But two weeks later, American soldiers arrived in her part of the city. The first sounds she heard were airplanes and then explosions late in the afternoon. She rushed up to the roof of their house, following her mother and sisters, not knowing what they would find. When she looked up at the sky, she saw armored vehicles floating under parachutes. It was like a movie, she said. A few days later, American soldiers walked down the street in front of her house, and Noor ran to the front door to watch them. She saw her neighbors also standing in their doorways, smiles on their faces. The soldiers smiled back, eager to talk to anyone who was willing. Everybody was so happy, Noor recalled. There was suddenly freedom. Less than a week later, on April 9, her fellow Iraqis descended on Firdos Square in central Baghdad, where they threw a rope over the enormous statue of Saddam Hussein, and, with the help of American soldiers, tore it down. Noor thought to herself, You know, we can have a new life. A better life.

Life under Saddam had been challenging. Noor s father had been a government employee, yet like many other Iraqis, the family had little money. Saddam s failed war against Iran in

Barbara F. Walter

I wish all the [January 6] committee members would read [How Civil Wars Start] if only to expand their imaginations. [Barbara F. Walter] demonstrates that the conditions for political violence are already all around us. David Brooks, The New York Times

How Civil Wars Start is a stop sign for us and an imperative book for our time. The evidence-based preventative measures could not be more urgent. Read and act. Ibram X. Kendi, author of How to Be an Antiracist

[A] bracing manual . . . Walter s book lays out America s possible roads to dystopia with impressive concision. Her synthesis of the various barometers of a country heading to civil war is hard to refute when applied to the U.S. . . . Indispensable. Financial Times

Like those who spoke up clearly about the dangers of global warming decades ago, Walter delivers a grave message that we ignore at our peril. The New Yorker

Rigorously researched and lucidly argued, How Civil Wars Start is an arresting wake-up call. Esquire

As a political scientist who has spent her career studying conflicts in other countries, [Walter] approaches her work methodically, patiently gathering her evidence before laying out her case. The New York Times

I ve been skeptical of the notion that the United States is on the verge of another civil war. Walter has made me reconsider. . . . This is a book that everyone in power should read immediately. The Washington Post

The popular theory that the world is becoming more peaceful is an illusion. This is a clearly written and enormously important book. Be afraid. The Times(U.K.)

One of the year s most persuasively pessimistic books. Prospect magazine

Drawing on her deep understanding of the causes of intra-state violence . . . Barbara F. Walter argues, chillingly, that many of the conditions that commonly precede civil wars are present today in the United States.