Economic Forecasting and Policy

Introduction Overview Business Cycle Analysis Real Sector Building Blocks Financial Sector Dynamics Public Finances Medium and Long-Run Projections Risks and Accuracy Policymaking and Forecasts Appendix: A Tour of the Forecasting Institutions Annex I: The Data Annex II: Time Series Methods Annex III: Macroeconomic Models Bibliography Index

Nicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen and Bruno Tissot

'This book manages to pull off being both a beginners guide and an experts go-to reference for the big questions on this increasingly important topic. As the world rebuilds from the greatest economic shock of this generation, books such as these will be devoured in the hope of finding the solution to ensure such a catastrophe will never happen again.' - Catherine Snowdon, Central Banking 'Good economic forecasters are pragmatists. They combine intuition, based on experience, with time series evidence and theory. Forget theory, and you lose internal consistency and become a bad story teller. Be a slave to theory, and you miss important developments because they do not fit. These skills are not taught in graduate school (they should). But they are taught in this remarkable book. Read it before you start forecasting.' Olivier J. Blanchard, Economics Professor, MIT and Chief Economist, IMF'This book reminded me almost effortlessly of the complications and pitfalls in the 'dark art' of forecasting I once had to learn the hard way. Its comprehensive and thoroughly up-to-date approach gave me insights I either never had or were simply not available at the time. It is clearly written, logically ordered, and reliant no more than necessary on mathematical techniques. It also draws key lessons from the 2007 financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed.' William R. White, Chairman of the OECD's Economic and Development Review Committee and Former Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, BIS'This book is accessible to anyone with a general background in economics, yet nuanced and state-of-the-art. It provides the complete toolkit needed by forecasters, with clear presentations of the technicalities and numerous up-to-date real-life exhibits. It vividly shows how economic analysis and decision processes interact.' Jean-Philippe Cotis, Head of France's National Statistical Office and former OECD Chief Economist