Rational Choice and Judgment / Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management Bd.1 (PDF)

The tools needed to make a better, more informed decision.

Decision analysis (DA) is the logic of making a decision using
quantitative models of the decider's factual and value
judgments. DA is already widely used in business, government,
medicine, economics, law, and science. However, most resources
present only the logic and models rather than demonstrating how
these methods can be effectively applied to the real world. This
book offers an innovative approach to decision analysis by focusing
on decision-making tools that can be utilized immediately to make
better, more informed decisions. It uses no mathematics
beyond arithmetic.

Examining how deciders think about their choices, this book
provides problem-solving techniques that not only reflect sound
modeling but also meet other essential requirements: they build on
the thinking and knowledge that deciders already possess; they
provide knowledge in a form that people are able and willing to
provide; they produce results that the decider can use; and they
are based on intimate and continuous interactions with the decider.
The methods outlined in this text take into account such factors as
the use, the user, the organization, available data, and subjective
knowledge.

Replete with exercises, case studies, and observations from the
author's own extensive consulting experience, the book
quickly engages readers and enables them to master decision
analysis by doing rather than by simply reading. Using familiar
situations, it demonstrates how to handle knowledge as it unfolds
in the real world. A term project is presented in the final
chapter, in which readers can select an actual decision-making
problem and apply their newfound tools to prepare a recommendation.
A sample report is provided in the appendix.

Beginning with qualitative structuring, the text advances to
sophisticated quantitative skills that can be applied in both
public and private enterprise, including:

· Modeling decision-making under conditions of
uncertainty or multiple objectives

· Risk analysis and assessment

· Communicating and justifying controversial
decisions

· Personal life choices and political judgments

· Adapting decision aid to organizations

The book's broad applicability makes it an excellent
resource for any organization or as a textbook for decision-making
courses in a variety of fields, including public policy, business
management, systems engineering and general education.

An Instructor's Manual presenting detailed solutions to all the
problems in the book is available from the Wiley editorial
department (email href="mailto:ialine@wiley.com">ialine@wiley.com) or
directly from href="mailto:rexvbrown@aol.com">rexvbrown@aol.com.