Forecasting and Management of Technology (ePub)

Chapter 1. Introduction. 1.1 About this Book. 1.2 Technology and Society. 1.3 Management and the Future. 1.4 Conclusions. References. Chapter 2. Technology Forecasting. 2.1 What is Technology Forecasting? 2.2 Methodological Foundations. 2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods. 2.4 Conclusion. References. Chapter 3. Managing the Forecasting Project. 3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project. 3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast. 3.3 Team Organization, Management and Communications. 3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time. 3.5 Project Scheduling. 3.6 Conclusions. References. Chapter 4. Exploring. 4.1 Establishing the Context - The TDS. 4.2 Monitoring. 4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity. 4.4 Conclusion. References. Chapter 5. Gathering and Using Information. 5.1 Expert Opinion. 5.3 Structuring The Search. 5.4 Preparing Search Results. 5.5 Using Search Results. 5.6 Developing Science, Technology and Social Indicators. 5.7 Communicating Search Results. 5.8 Conclusions. References. Chapter 6. Analyzing Phase. 6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods. 6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions. 6.3 Growth Models. 6.4 Simulation. 6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation. 6.6 System Dynamics. 6.7 Gaming. 6.8 Software Suggestions. References. Chapter 7. Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis. 7.1 Uncertainty. 7.2 Scenarios. 7.3 Examples and Applications. 7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques. 7.5 Conclusions. References. Chapter 8. Economic and Market Analysis. 8.1 The Context. 8.2 Forecasting the Market. 8.3 Forecasting the Economic Context. 8.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context. 8.5 Conclusion. References. Chapter 9. Impact Assessment. 9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting. 9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology. 9.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment. 9.4 Impact Identification. 9.5 Impact Analysis. 9.6 Impact Evaluation. 9.7 Conclusion. References. Chapter 10. Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis. 10.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices. 10.2

ALAN THOMAS ROPER (retired) was a professor at Rose-Hulman
Institute of Technology in Terre Haute, Indiana. He is the past
editor of the journal Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal and
the past director of the Center for Technology and Policy Studies
at Rose-Hulman.

SCOTT W. CUNNINGHAM obtained a MSc in public policy from
the Georgia Institute of Technology and a DPhil in science,
technology, and innovation policy from the University of Sussex. He
is currently Assistant Professor of Policy Analysis in the
Department of Technology, Policy, and Management at Delft
University of Technology.

ALAN L. PORTER has led development of "technology
opportunity analysis" and mining electronic, bibliographic data
sources to generate intelligence on emerging technologies. He holds
an MA in psychology and a PhD in engineering psychology, both from
UCLA. He is currently Director of Research and Development for
Search Technology, Inc., in Norcross, Georgia.

THOMAS W. MASON was the founding head of the Engineering
Management Department (www.rose-hulman.edu/msem). While on a
three-year leave from Rose-Hulman, he served as CFO and CEO of a
140-person network management systems business.

FREDERICK A. ROSSINI (retired) is a former provost at
George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.

JERRY BANKS is Professor Emeritus, Department of
Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
in Atlanta, Georgia.

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