International Migration and the Future of Populations
(Sprache: Englisch)
This study projects a 50-year perspective across 27 European countries, offering an extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed modification of demographic components of population change.
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This study projects a 50-year perspective across 27 European countries, offering an extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed modification of demographic components of population change.
Klappentext zu „International Migration and the Future of Populations “
The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe.
The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures.
The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.
The study, covering a 50-years perspective (2002-2052) and 27 European countries, is based on an extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed modification of demographic components of change (migration, mortality and fertility) and a detailed analysis of historical trends on a country by country basis. In parallel, an analogous analysis is conducted with respect to changes in the labour force participation rates. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to setting scenarios of future mortality, fertility, labour force participation and international migration. The latter was done in three variants (Base High and Low) separately for intra-European migration (a full matrix of flows) and net migration for exchanges between each of modeled countries and "the rest of the World". As a methodological novelty, an explicit incorporation of the impact of migration policies on migration flows was considered. Detailed presentation of the arguments and techniques used to formulate forecasting model assumptions serves full transparency of the modelling and is very useful for didactic purposes.
Inhaltsverzeichnis zu „International Migration and the Future of Populations “
Preface1. Introduction
PART I. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION - POLICIES, THEORIES, TRENDS AND ASSUMPTIONS
2. Migration policy in the European perspective - developments and future trend. a primer for forecasters
3. The use of international migration theories in migration forecasting - a practical approach
4. Recent trends in international migration in Europe
5. International migration scenarios for 27 European countries, 2002-2052
PART II. PAST AND FUTURE OF FERTILITY AND MORTALITY IN EUROPE
6.. Fertility scenarios for 27 European countries, 2002-2052
7. Mortality scenarios for 27 European countries, 2002-2052
PART III. HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND ASSUMPTIONS ON LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN EUROPE
8. Factors and models of labour force participation - theoretical and empirical
9. Scenarios of labour force participation for 27 European countries
PART IV. FUTURES OF EUROPEAN POPULATIONS AND LABOUR FORCE
10. Multistate Population Model for Multilevel Systems (MULTIPOLES) - A tool for population and labour force modelling
11. The futures of European populations and labour force, 2002 - 2052
PART V. BEYOND OF REPLACEMENT MIGRATION. RESULTS OF POPULATION AND LABOUR FORCE SIMULATIONS
12. Development and critique of the concept of replacement migration
13. Impact of international migration on population dynamics and labour force resources in Europe
PART VI. CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE RESULTS AND POLICY IMPACT
14. Critical assessment of the labour force evolution in Europe
15. Demography rules in pension systems
16. Recommendations for European social and population policies
17. References
9. Scenarios of labour force participa
Bibliographische Angaben
- 2013, Repr. 2012., 350 Seiten, Masse: 16 x 24,1 cm, Gebunden, Englisch
- Herausgegeben:Kupiszewski, Marek
- Herausgegeben: Marek Kupiszewski
- Verlag: Springer Netherlands
- ISBN-10: 9048189470
- ISBN-13: 9789048189472
- Erscheinungsdatum: 08.02.2013
Sprache:
Englisch
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