Increase in Protein Demand for China¿s Livestock Sector and Ist Implications for International Agricultural Trade

The objectives of the investigation presented in this volume are to analyze supply,demand, and trade of protein ingredients (oilseed meals, fi shmeal, meat and bonemeal) in China, as well as the infl uence of internal and external determinants andchanges in the macro-economic policies on these markets. The conceptual frameworkused for that purpose is the basic structural model for analyzing agriculturalcommodity markets. The defi cit status and trade situation of protein ingredients aresimulated within that framework. The results of the econometric analyses indicatethat supply of and demand for soybeans have become less-price responsive in China.The relationships between livestock production and crush demand for proteinmeals as well as their joint oilseeds turned out to be positive. There are constraintson the expansion of soybean harvest areas in China, which is consistent with thelack of suffi cient protein meals in the country¿s livestock sector. Technical change, incontrast, has a positive and signifi cant effect on Chinäs soybean production.Chinäs WTO accession does not have a signifi cant impact on its soybean importsaccording to this investigation; the rising livestock output is the main driving forceboosting them. Chinäs soybean imports have become sensitive to the price developmentof price differences between the domestic and the world market. The regulationson Genetically Modifi ed Organisms (GMO) and food safety policy potentiallyhave strong infl uence on the trade of protein meals and their joint oilseeds. The basicscenario result indicates that Chinäs soybean import dependency rate will substantiallyincrease over the coming years.